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Taca de Portugal | Round of 16
Jan 10, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
B

Benfica
3 - 2
Braga

Silva (42'), Cabral (44'), Aursnes (70')
Morato (40'), di Maria (60')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Zalazar (7', 48')
Gomez (58'), Oliveira (72')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Benfica
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, January 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Benfica 2-1 Braga

There has been little to separate Benfica and Braga in recent meetings, and another tightly-contested contest is set to be played out on Wednesday between two teams who will have confidence in their own abilities to secure the result that they need to advance to the quarter-finals. The absence of top scorer Banza is a blow for Braga, and they may find it difficult to outscore an in-form Benfica outfit who have found the net 14 times in their last five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Braga had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawBraga
52.01% (-0.255 -0.26) 23.36% (0.194 0.19) 24.63% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
Both teams to score 56.75% (-0.585 -0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.97% (-0.807 -0.81)44.03% (0.811 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.59% (-0.792 -0.79)66.41% (0.79600000000001 0.8)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.05% (-0.38500000000001 -0.39)16.95% (0.389 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.96% (-0.694 -0.69)47.04% (0.697 0.7)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.33% (-0.384 -0.38)31.67% (0.388 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.91% (-0.443 -0.44)68.09% (0.447 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 52.01%
    Braga 24.63%
    Draw 23.35%
BenficaDrawBraga
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.53% (0.213 0.21)
2-0 @ 8.46% (0.08 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.75% (-0.082 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.31% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.55% (-0.07 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.47% (-0.057 -0.06)
5-1 @ 0.91% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 52.01%
1-1 @ 10.95% (0.13 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.066 -0.07)
0-0 @ 5.37% (0.188 0.19)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.35%
1-2 @ 6.3% (0.008 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.17% (0.151 0.15)
0-2 @ 3.55% (0.05 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.41% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.14% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-3 @ 1.36% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 24.63%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Benfica
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 3-0 Famalicao
Friday, December 29 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Benfica 4-1 AVS
Thursday, December 21 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Salzburg 1-3 Benfica
Tuesday, December 12 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Benfica 1-1 Farense
Friday, December 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Braga 1-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, January 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Braga
Saturday, December 30 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Nacional 1-3 Braga
Friday, December 22 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Braga 0-1 Benfica
Sunday, December 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Napoli 2-0 Braga
Tuesday, December 12 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Vizela 1-3 Braga
Friday, December 8 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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