SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vizela |
27.75% ( -0.39) | 26.65% ( -0.24) | 45.59% ( 0.63) |
| Both teams to score 49.13% ( 0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.67% ( 0.68) | 55.32% ( -0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.46% ( 0.55) | 76.54% ( -0.55) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.81% ( 0.05) | 35.18% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.06% ( 0.05) | 71.93% ( -0.05) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.79% ( 0.61) | 24.2% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.46% ( 0.85) | 58.54% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.08% Total : 27.75% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.65% | 0-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 8.95% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 8.57% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 4.05% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.55% Total : 45.59% |
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