SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 81.95%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 5.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (12.83%) and 0-1 (11.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
5.37% ( -0.05) | 12.68% ( -0) | 81.95% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 38.15% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.9% ( -0.23) | 39.1% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.57% ( -0.25) | 61.42% ( 0.24) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.15% ( -0.32) | 58.84% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 9.95% ( -0.17) | 90.04% ( 0.16) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.7% ( -0.04) | 7.3% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 73.59% ( -0.11) | 26.41% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 2.28% ( 0) 2-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.52% Total : 5.37% | 1-1 @ 5.96% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.35% Total : 12.68% | 0-2 @ 14.71% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 12.83% ( 0.06)0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 8.4% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.81% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 4.45% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 4.4% ( 0)1-5 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 1.92% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)1-6 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 81.94% |
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