SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 14.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
64.55% ( -0.05) | 21% ( 0.04) | 14.45% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 46.87% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.56% ( -0.12) | 48.44% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.43% ( -0.11) | 70.57% ( 0.11) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.72% ( -0.05) | 14.28% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.93% ( -0.1) | 42.07% ( 0.11) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.68% ( -0.05) | 45.32% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.81% ( -0.04) | 81.19% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 12.25% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.41% Total : 64.54% | 1-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.72% Total : 21% | 0-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.04% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 1.3% Total : 14.45% |
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