Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 1-0 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.23) 
