Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.27) 
