Vitoria have claimed only one road victory in eight attempts, losing five on their travels, and that sole triumph came against the league's bottom club.
Despite Gremio's away scoring form to net a goal in five consecutive road games, the home side's recent improvement on their turf suggests they might turn the corner with their home advantage this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
0.58) 
-0.39) 
