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Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 22, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Medellin
4 - 0
Palestino

Roman (29' og.), Alvarado (42'), Chaverra (66' pen.), Perlaza (67')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Roman (34'), Davila (65')

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Palestino 2-2 Medellin
Thursday, August 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Palestino 2-2 Medellin
Thursday, August 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Palestino

Following last week's result, Independiente Medellin and Palestino will need no extra motivation on Wednesday as they look to reach the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals — a stage that they have both never progressed past in the history of the tournament. While we expect both sides to go all out at the Estadio Hernan Ramirez Villegas, we fancy the Colombian outfit to come away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 25.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Palestino win it was 0-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.

Result
Independiente MedellinDrawPalestino
48.32% (-0.261 -0.26) 26.24% (0.0030000000000001 0) 25.44% (0.257 0.26)
Both teams to score 48.56% (0.217 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.81% (0.166 0.17)55.19% (-0.166 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.57% (0.137 0.14)76.43% (-0.136 -0.14)
Independiente Medellin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.13% (-0.046000000000006 -0.05)22.87% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.39% (-0.07 -0.07)56.61% (0.07 0.07)
Palestino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.96% (0.317 0.32)37.04% (-0.317 -0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.17% (0.314 0.31)73.83% (-0.31399999999999 -0.31)
Score Analysis
    Independiente Medellin 48.31%
    Palestino 25.44%
    Draw 26.24%
Independiente MedellinDrawPalestino
1-0 @ 12.49% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-0 @ 9.22% (-0.084999999999999 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.16% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.53% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-1 @ 4.5% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.24% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.67% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.66% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 48.31%
1-1 @ 12.41% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.47% (-0.055 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.55% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 8.41% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.16% (0.058 0.06)
0-2 @ 4.18% (0.045 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.04% (0.036 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.51% (0.025 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.38% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 25.44%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Palestino 2-2 Medellin
Thursday, August 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Medellin 4-0 Always Ready
Thursday, May 30 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Defensa 1-1 Medellin
Wednesday, May 15 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 1-5 Medellin
Wednesday, May 8 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Medellin 2-1 Defensa
Friday, April 26 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Medellin 4-2 Cesar Vallejo
Thursday, April 11 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Palestino 2-2 Medellin
Thursday, August 15 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cuiaba 1-2 Palestino
Thursday, July 25 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Palestino 1-1 Cuiaba
Thursday, July 18 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Bolivar 3-1 Palestino
Wednesday, May 29 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Millonarios 1-1 Palestino
Wednesday, May 15 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Palestino 1-0 Flamengo
Wednesday, May 8 at 1am in Copa Libertadores


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