While Vasco da Gama have seen an improvement in results in the last three games, all 14 points they have earned this season have come on their home patch. They have suffered six losses in a row on the road and have only scored once in their last five outings.
Internacional have certainly not set the league alight this season, but their home form has been solid and their record in this fixture is hard to overlook. We feel the hosts will secure the points in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 55.93%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 19.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.05) 
