The combination of Lazio's improved home form and Empoli's woes on the road indicate only one outcome at Stadio Olimpico: the hosts should claim three points, while their visitors stay deep in danger at the wrong end of Serie A.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 65.23%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 13.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.84%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Lazio in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lazio.
-0.51) 
0.42) 
