SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United Under-21s win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 36.66% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.4%) and 3-1 (5.25%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
43.51% ( 0.03) | 19.84% ( -0) | 36.66% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 77.95% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 80.25% ( 0.02) | 19.75% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 62.27% ( 0.02) | 37.73% ( -0.02) |
| Leeds United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.37% ( 0.02) | 10.63% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.54% ( 0.03) | 34.46% ( -0.03) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.22% | 12.77% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.94% ( -0.01) | 39.06% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 7.02% 3-2 @ 5.4% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.25% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.41% ( 0)1-0 @ 3.04% ( -0)4-2 @ 3.02% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.94% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.55% ( 0)4-3 @ 2.07% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.36% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0)5-3 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 3.77% Total : 43.51% | 2-2 @ 7.22% ( -0) 1-1 @ 6.26% ( -0)3-3 @ 3.7% ( 0)0-0 @ 1.36% ( -0)4-4 @ 1.07% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.84% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.95% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.88% ( -0)0-1 @ 2.79% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.55% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.27% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0)3-4 @ 1.9% 2-5 @ 1.05% 0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0)1-5 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 3.47% Total : 36.66% |
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