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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.15%) and 2-3 (4.98%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Stoke City Under-21s in this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Stoke City Under-21s |
37.53% ( 1.47) | 20.74% ( 0.28) | 41.73% ( -1.74) |
| Both teams to score 74.47% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.87% ( -1.14) | 24.13% ( 1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.23% ( -1.53) | 43.77% ( 1.53) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.55% ( 0.05) | 14.44% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.61% ( 0.09) | 42.39% ( -0.09) |
| Stoke City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.04% ( -1.02) | 12.96% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.56% ( -2.12) | 39.44% ( 2.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Stoke City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.2)1-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.28)4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.1)4-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.09)Other @ 4.49% Total : 37.53% | 1-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 7.32% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.94% Total : 20.74% | 1-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 4.98% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0)0-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.63% ( -0.21)2-4 @ 2.55% ( -0.2)3-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.13)2-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.35% Total : 41.73% |
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