SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Comoros win with a probability of 45.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Comoros win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.39%) and 1-2 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Comoros |
25.79% ( -0.32) | 28.9% ( 0.02) | 45.31% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 41.82% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.05% ( -0.23) | 63.95% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.85% ( -0.16) | 83.15% ( 0.16) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.35% ( -0.42) | 41.65% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.87% ( -0.37) | 78.13% ( 0.36) |
| Comoros Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.68% ( 0.04) | 28.32% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.95% ( 0.06) | 64.05% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Comoros |
| 1-0 @ 10.33% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.52% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.19% Total : 25.79% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.47% Total : 28.9% | 0-1 @ 14.88% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 9.39% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 8.22% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 1.56% Total : 45.31% |
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