SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 44.56%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (7.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.65%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tunisia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Tunisia | Draw | Madagascar |
44.56% ( -1.64) | 30.19% ( 0.54) | 25.24% ( 1.09) |
| Both teams to score 38.48% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.09% ( -0.95) | 67.9% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.13% ( -0.64) | 85.87% ( 0.63) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.3% ( -1.37) | 30.7% ( 1.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.05% ( -1.65) | 66.95% ( 1.65) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.52% ( 0.47) | 44.47% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.49% ( 0.38) | 80.51% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tunisia | Draw | Madagascar |
| 1-0 @ 16.12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.4)2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.22)3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.08% Total : 44.56% | 0-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.47) 1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.35% Total : 30.19% | 0-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.76% Total : 25.24% |
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