Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 59.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Uniao de Leiria had a probability of 18.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%), while for a Uniao de Leiria win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
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