Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%).
-0.31) 
0.11) 
