Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 39.96%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
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