SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 61.85%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 19.63% and a draw had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (4.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Morecambe |
61.85% ( -0.43) | 18.51% ( 0.16) | 19.63% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 67.36% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.87% ( -0.38) | 27.13% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.35% ( -0.48) | 47.65% ( 0.47) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.35% ( -0.2) | 8.64% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.19% ( -0.49) | 29.81% ( 0.49) |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% | 26.26% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.62% ( 0) | 61.38% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Morecambe |
| 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.84% Total : 61.86% | 1-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.52% Total : 18.51% | 1-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 19.63% |
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