Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
