SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 45.11%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Morecambe | Draw | MK Dons |
29.93% ( -0.21) | 24.96% ( -0.02) | 45.11% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 55.78% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.69% ( 0.01) | 47.31% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.46% ( 0) | 69.54% ( -0) |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.62% ( -0.14) | 29.39% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.63% ( -0.17) | 65.37% ( 0.18) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.99% ( 0.11) | 21.02% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.2% ( 0.17) | 53.8% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Morecambe | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 29.93% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.95% | 0-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.79% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 45.11% |
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