Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage
Jul 30, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
Fabian Fernandez Benitez (5')
de la Cruz Perez Mosqueira (38'), Gomez (45+7'), Fabian Fernandez Benitez (58'),
Cardozo (71'), Fernandez Torres (90+10'), Caballero (90+12')
FT(HT: 1-0)
We said: Paraguay 2-1 Mali
With so much at stake here, we expect both teams to be fully up for this one, giving rise to an entertaining affair. That said, we are also backing Paraguay to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali Under-23s win with a probability of 61.94%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Paraguay Under-23s had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali Under-23s win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.63%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Paraguay Under-23s win it was 1-0 (5.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Paraguay Under-23s would win this match.
| Result |
| Paraguay Under-23s | Draw | Mali Under-23s |
16.99% ( -0.8) | 21.07% ( -0.33) | 61.94% ( 1.13) |
| Both teams to score 52.41% ( -0.54) |
| 55.96% ( 0.1) | 44.03% ( -0.1) |
| 33.58% ( 0.1) | 66.42% ( -0.1) |
| 60.71% ( -0.89) | 39.28% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.01% ( -0.84) | 75.99% ( 0.84) |
| 86.33% ( 0.37) | 13.67% ( -0.37) |
