Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage
Jul 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
We said: Mali Under-23s 2-1 Israel Under-23s
There is little to separate these two teams who enter Wednesday's contest in buoyant mood after winning their final warm-up matches, but we believe that Mali may just have the edge and should do enough to claim a slender victory.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali Under-23s win with a probability of 76.36%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Israel Under-23s had a probability of 7.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali Under-23s win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.04%) and 3-0 (11.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Israel Under-23s win it was 0-1 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result |
| Mali Under-23s | Draw | Israel Under-23s |
76.36% ( -3.34) | 16.62% ( 1.67) | 7.02% ( 1.66) |
| Both teams to score 34.62% ( 3.84) |
| 49.96% ( -0.52) | 50.04% ( 0.51) |
| 27.98% ( -0.46) | 72.01% ( 0.46) |
| 88.67% ( -1.04) | 11.33% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 63.99% ( -2.31) | 36.01% ( 2.3) |
| 39.04% ( 4.74) | 60.96% ( -4.74) |
