Despite enjoying a successful weekend, we think that Swansea could fall short against their promotion-chasing hosts, who should have enough quality to edge out the visitors and record a fifth consecutive home victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
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