Having found the net twice against Galatasaray last week, Sparta Prague will fancy their chances here. However, we think the visitors will do enough not to lose this match and eventually go through on aggregate.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 51.51%. A win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Sparta Prague win was 2-1 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.39) 
