Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pumas win with a probability of 49.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 24.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pumas win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (8.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Pumas in this match.