Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 67.41%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Brest had a probability of 13.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.