Both teams will point to difficult recent fixtures as to why their formbooks are misleading going into this match, but despite Brest sitting higher in the table and having generally been the better side this season, we are backing the home side to come away with the points.
Montpellier have only been beaten once at home all season and have not conceded in any of their last three home games, whereas Brest have failed to score in any of their last three away games.
It is a more confident Brest side than the one that lost last season's meetings 10-0 on aggregate, but they have also only won one of their last 15 meetings with Montpellier, and we are backing Der Zakarian to get one over on his former club.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Brest had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.02) 
