Even though Bosnia-Herzegovina are the runaway leaders, they have recorded draws in each of their other two away games. With that in mind, we feel that lightning may strike for a third time, leaving it up to Montenegro to do the home side a favour in the other match.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.23%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 (12.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Romania would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.03) 
