Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County Under-23s win with a probability of 47.46%. A win for Manchester United Under-23s had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 3-1 (5.82%). The likeliest Manchester United Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.