Goodison Park has not been kind to Brighton in recent memory, although Everton's two week-long break may work against them if rustiness comes into play.
The expected return of Calvert-Lewin will aid Everton's prospects of breaking down a stubborn Seagulls backline, though, and we have confidence in the Toffees' ability to nick the odd goal and start 2022 as they mean to go on.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.
