Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 40.93%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.