Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 48.18%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Desportivo das Aves had a probability of 24.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Desportivo das Aves win it was 0-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
