Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Desportivo das Aves had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Desportivo das Aves win was 1-0 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.