Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match.
