Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Khimki win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Khimki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.