Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 31.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Sochi win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.