Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montrose win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montrose win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montrose would win this match.