Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 49.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 25.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cittadella would win this match.