Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 61.43%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Como had a probability of 16.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Como win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
