Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 37.1%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (11.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Como would win this match.
