Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palermo win with a probability of 36.69%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palermo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (11.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palermo would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.25) 
