Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 38.06%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Brescia win was 1-0 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.07) 
