Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 73.2%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for CF Os Belenenses had a probability of 10.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.67%) and 0-3 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a CF Os Belenenses win it was 1-0 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
-0.46) 
0.94) 
