While Famalicao's cup dreams suffered a huge blow, they have put together some late-season form in the league as they make a late push for European football. However, given the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, we fancy Sporting Lisbon to come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
0.81) 
-0.29) 
