Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caldas win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Tirsense had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caldas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Tirsense win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
