Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 55.88%. A win for Amarante had a probability of 22.31% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Amarante win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
0.35) 
-0.08) 
