While Gil Vicente have been solid at home, it is hard to not see them struggling against an in-form Moreirense side. Borges's men boast the division's fourth-best point tally on the road and we fancy them extending their dominance against the hosts on Monday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.1) 
