Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 71.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Lagoa had a probability of 9.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.46%) and 0-3 (10.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Lagoa win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Famalicao in this match.
0.02) 
-0.05) 
