Under-20s World Cup | Quarter-Finals
Jun 3, 2023 at 10pm UK
Estadio San Juan del Bicentenario
We said: Colombia Under-20s 2-2 Italy Under-20s (a.e.t, Italy to win on penalties)
Italy will prove to be much sterner opposition than Slovakia were for Colombia, but the Tricolor's consistency in front of goal should cancel out any defensive lapses in concentration.
The Azzurrini also required a healthy dose of VAR controversy to get over the line against England, and a shootout from 12 yards may be required to separate the two sides, where Italy can emulate their seniors' feats from Euro 2020 to progress.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy Under-20s win with a probability of 43.43%. A win for Colombia Under-20s had a probability of 29.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy Under-20s win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Colombia Under-20s win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy Under-20s would win this match.
| Result |
| Colombia Under-20s | Draw | Italy Under-20s |
29.84% ( -1) | 26.73% ( 0.12) | 43.43% ( 0.88) |
| Both teams to score 50.11% ( -0.81) |
| 45.36% ( -0.82) | 54.64% ( 0.83) |
| 24.03% ( -0.69) | 75.97% ( 0.69) |
| 66.78% ( -1.15) | 33.21% ( 1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.18% ( -1.29) | 69.82% ( 1.29) |
| 75.04% ( 0.08) | 24.96% ( -0.08) |
