Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minai win with a probability of 42.88%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minai win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.